Computer Models Accurately Forecast Historic Megalopolis Snow

With emergency blizzard warnings spread across the Mid-Atlantic, Winter Storm JONAS is named; classic mid-latitude vortex with confluent flows locks in enough cold air for a record-breaking weekend nor’easter

WASHINGTON, D.C.Tens of millions of Americans are preparing as the ingredients come together for Winter Storm Jonas to evolve into a crippling snowstorm later Friday into the weekend. With Winter Storm Jonas organizing over the Southeast and moisture surging into cold air to the north, rain is changing over to snow on the northwest side of the system. Conditions will go downhill rapidly through Saturday with blizzard conditions, heavy ice accumulations, strong winds and coastal flooding developing across the East.

As of Thursday night, more than 85 million people – or roughly one in every four Americans – in at least 20 states were covered by either a blizzard watch, blizzard warning, winter storm watch, winter storm warning, winter weather advisory, or freezing rain advisory from Arkansas to the Carolinas to the New York City area.

Winter Storm Jonas Alerts

Many of our largest BDPA Chapter cities in the Northeast – Washington D.C.BaltimorePhiladelphia, and New York – will significantly be impacted by this storm with heavy snows and very strong winds, bringing all modes of travel to a grinding halt, between Friday and Sunday morning.

The GFS model (afternoon run): 17-35 inches

The GFS model ensemble mean* (afternoon run): 18-27 inches

The GFS model (morning run): 15-30 inches

The GFS model ensemble mean* (morning run): 18-27 inches

The European model: 5-30 inches

The European model ensemble mean*: 12-21 inches

The Canadian model: 15-22 inches

Winter storm warnings are posted from the Carolinas to the Appalachians, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-South AND as far west as central Arkansas and northeast Louisiana. Among the many cities included in warnings are Raleigh, Charlotte, Louisville, Nashville, Memphis and Little Rock.

Taken together, these blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings alone include more than 40 million Americans.

— Sources: weather.com and washingtonpost.com

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