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NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory Welcomes Dr. DaNa Carlis As New Deputy Director

BOULDER, CO — DaNa L. Carlis, Ph.D., joined GSL as the Deputy Director in September 2020. He comes to GSL from the NOAA Weather Program Office (WPO), where he established the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) Program. DaNa enjoys working between science, policy, and society to ensure better products and services for the American people. He is also passionate about leadership, diversity, and inclusion, and mentoring the next generation of scientists.

“I couldn’t be more grateful and excited to join GSL because of its focus on applied research and development, advanced technologies, and transitioning and improving research-to-operations with the National Weather Service (NWS). GSL aligns perfectly with my desire to provide better products and services to the American people. I’ve always wanted to do research that impacts people’s lives, and GSL is a premier NOAA research laboratory that provides innovative tools and services that lead to better decisions and ultimately save lives,” said Carlis. “As the GSL’s Deputy Director, I am committed to bringing strong leadership and listening skills along with a creative mind to continue to advance the GSL mission. In addition, I plan to continue to uphold GSL’s scientific prowess, which is displayed in our cutting-edge research portfolio that is widely recognized by the Weather Enterprise.”

DaNa attended Howard University in Washington, DC, and earned his B.S. degree in Chemistry (1999), and an M.S. (2002) and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science (2007) as a graduate student of the NOAA Center for Atmospheric Science and Meteorology (NCAS-M). In 2002, DaNa accepted a fellowship from the NOAA Office of Education Educational Partnership Program (EPP) as a member of the Graduate Sciences Program and completed his M.S thesis research at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) conducting an analysis of SO2 cross-sections for the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite. He completed his Ph.D. dissertation on the beautiful island of Oahu, Hawaii, titled “Numerical Simulations of Island-Scale Airflow and the Maui Vortex Under Summer Trade-wind Conditions.” DaNa was the second male to receive a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences since Howard’s inception in 1867.

DaNa credits NCAS-M and NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program/Minority-Serving Institution EPP/MSI Program for allowing him to pursue what he loves and providing a pathway to federal employment. DaNa has held positions at the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) as a research meteorologist working on NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) Model (2007-2014), and as a policy advisor to NOAA’s Chief Scientist and NOAA’s Assistant Secretary of Environmental Observations and Prediction (2014-2016). DaNa is a graduate of NOAA’s Leadership Competency Development Program (LCDP) Class IX where he learned a great leadership lesson that’s been his mantra for the last few years and that’s to work in an environment where he’s comfortably uncomfortable.

DaNa is originally from Tulsa, OK. In his spare time, he enjoys cheering for his favorite sports team, the Oklahoma Sooners, mentoring boys from underrepresented communities that come from single-parent households, and traveling the world with his family. In 2016, he wrote a children’s book titled “MIT: Meteorologist in Training” and he’s published peer-reviewed papers. DaNa is married to Dr. Lydia Carlis, and they have a daughter, Dia Dannielle, who is a senior at Georgia State University. — bt

^{— Source and photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)}
^{Cover photo (above): Dr. DaNa Carlis keynotes BDPA’s 2019 annual Regional Earth Day Tech Summit}
^{with Jr. Devs (coders and developers) and Regional High School Coding Competition (HSCC) finalists}

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**Tablets For Teens** | tabletsforteens.org

NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Silver Spring, MD—NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1st to November 30th.

For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

A graphic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms.

“With the 2019 hurricane season upon us, NOAA is leveraging cutting-edge tools to help secure Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes and tropical cyclones across both the Atlantic and Pacific,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Throughout hurricane season, dedicated NOAA staff will remain on alert for any danger to American lives and communities.”

This outlook reflects competing climate factors. The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.

“New satellite data and other upgrades to products and services from NOAA enable a more Weather-Ready Nation by providing the public and decision makers with the information needed to take action before, during, and after a hurricane,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.

The 2019 hurricane season marks the first time NOAA’s fleet of Earth-observing satellites includes three operational next-generation satellites. Unique and valuable data from these satellites feed the hurricane forecast models used by forecasters to help users make critical decisions days in advance

NOAA’s National Weather Service is making a planned upgrade to its Global Forecast System (GFS) flagship weather model – often called the American model – early in the 2019 hurricane season. This marks the first major upgrade to the dynamical core of the model in almost 40 years and will improve tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. “NOAA is driving towards a community-based development program for future weather and climate modeling to deliver the very best forecasts, by leveraging new investments in research and working with the weather enterprise,” added Jacobs.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and NWS office in San Juan will expand the coastal storm surge watches and warnings in 2019 to include Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In addition, NHC will display excessive rainfall outlooks on its website, providing greater visibility of one of the most dangerous inland threats from hurricanes.

Also, this season, NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft will collect higher-resolution data from upgraded onboard radar systems. These enhanced observations will be transmitted in near-real time to hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and forecasters at NWS Weather Forecast Offices.

A graphic showing 2019 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization.

In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. A 70% chance of an above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70% probability of 15 to 22 named storms, of which 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, including 4 to 8 major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70% probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2019 hurricane season, just as it is every year. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings.

“Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector, and the public,” said Daniel Kaniewski, Ph.D., FEMA deputy administrator for resilience. “It only takes one event to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have cash on hand? Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have communication and evacuation plans? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2019 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.

— Source: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Top photo: bdpatoday

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Coders discuss models and forecasts with NOAA during annual Earth Day Tech Summit

WASHINGTON—BDPA’s annual Earth Day Tech Summit, #CyberEarth19, was presented in Washington, D.C. to Industry, BDPA Members, Student Members, parents, and regional high school coding competition (HSCC) team leaders (cover photo) during Earth Day weekend.

This year’s tech summit special guest was Dr. DaNa L. Carlis from the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Dr. Carlis is a meteorologist and mathematician serving as a Program Manager at NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality (OWAQ). During one of the event’s Industry Day sessions, Dr. Carlis highlighted missions of NOAA’s “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft with footage from recent flights. He also discussed the roles of drones and new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) systems to support meteorological research, capture weather forecasting data, and how supercomputers are used to advance weather modeling and simulations.

At OWAQ, Dr. Carlis manages the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) and Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) programs. Dr. Carlis enjoys the fact that he’s able to work between science, policy, and society to ensure better products and services to the American people.

During the event’s training sessions, Dr. Carlis met with BDPA Student Members, gamers, and graphic designers from the Host Chapter’s bdpatoday and PTTV multimedia teams. National BDPA’s HSCC was launched in 1986. Local BDPA Chapters conduct training programs designed to share industry trends with parents and expose youth to emerging concepts of computers and technology to provide expertise for software and application development. BDPA Chapters also participate in regional coding and cyber competitions throughout the country to further prepare participating students. BDPA Chapters send one (1) team of 3 to 5 students to annual National BDPA Technology Conferences to compete against teams from other BDPA Chapters for scholarships and internships.

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Event/Photo gallery: https://bdpadc.org
Earth Day summit archives: https://www.pinterest.com/bdpatoday/boards/

-— Source: BDPADC

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NOAA retires storms named Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate

WASHINGTON — Due to the extensive damage caused in the United States and Caribbean last year, the World Meteorological Organization’s Region IV Hurricane Committee has officially retired these names. Storm names are retired if they were so deadly or destructive that the future use of the name would be insensitive – otherwise names are reused by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center on a six-year cycle.

The committee also selected the replacement names for Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate with Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel respectively that will first appear in the 2023 list of storm names.

Including these four additions, there have been 86 names retired from the Atlantic basin list since 1953, when storms began to be named. The 2005 hurricane season has the most retired names (five) for one season.

During #CYBEREARTH17, Dr. Dana Carlis (above) of NOAA shared new weather satellite capabilities with BDPA Members and Students during 2017’s Earth Day Tech Summit presentation. Photo © 2017 bdpatoday.

Adrian Gardner (above), Chief Information Officer (CIO) for the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) shares his agency’s mission, disaster recovery/continuity of operations (DR/COOP) initiatives, the role of “low-tech” during emergencies, and Agency success stories with small business executives and BDPA mission partners during last spring’s 2017 CYBEREARTH17 tech summit. Photo © 2017 bdpatoday

Summary of the newly retired storms

Hurricane Harvey became a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale before making landfall along the middle Texas coast on Aug. 25. The storm then stalled, with its center remaining over or near the Texas coast for four days, dropping historic rainfall amounts, of up to five feet, causing catastrophic flooding in parts of southeastern Texas. Harvey is the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history (after inflation), behind only Katrina in 2005. At least 68 people died from the direct effects of the storm in Texas, the largest number in that state since 1919.

GOES-16 captured this geocolor image of Hurricane Harvey making landfall on the Texas coast at approximately 10:00 pm CDT on August 25, 2017. Harvey’s maximum sustained winds were near 130 mph, making it a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (NOAA)

Hurricane Irma was a long-lived hurricane that reached category 5 intensity on Sept. 5. The catastrophic hurricane made seven landfalls, four of which occurred as a category 5 hurricane across the northern Caribbean Islands. Irma made landfall as a category 4 hurricane in the Florida Keys on Sept. 10 and struck southwestern Florida as a category 3 the same day. Irma caused 44 direct deaths as a result of its strong winds, heavy rain and high surf. In the U.S., seven direct deaths were reported, and an additional 85 indirect deaths occurred, 80 of which were in Florida. Hundreds more were injured preparing for the storm, during it or in its aftermath.

Hurricane Maria ravaged the island of Dominica as a category 5 on Sept. 19, and later devastated Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane. It also inflicted serious damage on some of the other islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Maria is the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history, behind Harvey and Katrina. Maria caused 31 direct deaths with 34 missing in Dominica, and two direct deaths in Guadeloupe. In Puerto Rico, the death toll stands at 65, which includes an unknown number of indirect deaths.

Hurricane Nate crossed northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras as a tropical storm, then made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast as a category 1 hurricane. It brought rainfall that caused significant impacts in Central America, where media reports indicate that these caused 44 deaths in the region. An additional fatality in Panama was due to a “shipwreck,” bringing the death toll directly associated with Nate to 45. An additional nine people were missing in the region.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is a member of the World Meteorological Organization’s Region IV Hurricane Committee, and is responsible for issuing tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins.

— Source and photos: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency

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SPECIAL REPORT: Big Data vs. Big Storms

A PTTV Special Report: WINTER STORM JONAS

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Big Data, Predictive Analytics, and supercomputer weather models, accurately predict and warn millions of Americans of a major winter storm yet formed; keeping thousands off of hazardous roads and out of harm’s way.

Advance notices of this magnitude facilitated disaster recovery and continuity of operations (DR/CoOP) planning for municipalities, some eventually buried under three feet of snow.

First responders, utility companies, and National Guard units along the east coast were in position before the first snow flakes arrived.

Discover more…

Photo credits: L-Zone.com, NASA, NOAA, and SC15 | Supercomputing 2015

Computer Models Accurately Forecast Historic Megalopolis Snow

With emergency blizzard warnings spread across the Mid-Atlantic, Winter Storm JONAS is named; classic mid-latitude vortex with confluent flows locks in enough cold air for a record-breaking weekend nor’easter

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Tens of millions of Americans are preparing as the ingredients come together for Winter Storm Jonas to evolve into a crippling snowstorm later Friday into the weekend. With Winter Storm Jonas organizing over the Southeast and moisture surging into cold air to the north, rain is changing over to snow on the northwest side of the system. Conditions will go downhill rapidly through Saturday with blizzard conditions, heavy ice accumulations, strong winds and coastal flooding developing across the East.

As of Thursday night, more than 85 million people – or roughly one in every four Americans – in at least 20 states were covered by either a blizzard watch, blizzard warning, winter storm watch, winter storm warning, winter weather advisory, or freezing rain advisory from Arkansas to the Carolinas to the New York City area.

Many of our largest BDPA Chapter cities in the Northeast – Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York – will significantly be impacted by this storm with heavy snows and very strong winds, bringing all modes of travel to a grinding halt, between Friday and Sunday morning.

The GFS model (afternoon run): 17-35 inches

The GFS model ensemble mean* (afternoon run): 18-27 inches

The GFS model (morning run): 15-30 inches

The GFS model ensemble mean* (morning run): 18-27 inches

The European model: 5-30 inches

The European model ensemble mean*: 12-21 inches

The Canadian model: 15-22 inches

Winter storm warnings are posted from the Carolinas to the Appalachians, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-South AND as far west as central Arkansas and northeast Louisiana. Among the many cities included in warnings are Raleigh, Charlotte, Louisville, Nashville, Memphis and Little Rock.

Taken together, these blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings alone include more than 40 million Americans.

— Sources: weather.com and washingtonpost.com